Is A Big Housing Marketing Crash Coming to the U.S.A.?
There are many housing market "bubbles" around the world but when the U.S.A. market goes, so typically go markets in other countries like Australia, Canada and Europe. So, the question then is, should you take advantage of low interest rates and easy credit now to buy overpriced real estate, or wait it out? If so, for how long?
During the global lockdowns in 2020, and even in to 2021, there was a housing moratorium that kept people in homes that would otherwise have gone into foreclosure. This created a shortage of housing in the U.S.A., and a subsequent frenzy of buyers anxious for the 'security' of owning their own home. Of course, we know that having a mortgage on one's house means that an outside bank actually owns your home, even though you're forced to pay upkeep, taxes, and other expenses related to home ownership. It's a precarious situation, even if you owe the bank just $1.
Still, it does create some semblence of security, and here we are, facing near record home prices in many areas and what appears to be a "shortage" of homes for sale.
Nonetheless, I don't expect to see a 2008-style housing crash within the next year or even two. I think the powers that be (the central banks) will continue to prop up this market and even pump it up further. It isn't until around 2025 when we should see the first round of massive foreclosures, to be followed by even more troubles in 2026, and possibly into 2027 in some areas.
So, if you're frugal and are waiting to purchase property at a discount over today's over-inflated prices, it might be a good thing to wait until 2025 at the earliest. The discounts on homes and property in general could range from as little as 4% in some areas to nearly 20% on average (up to 70% in some pockets of the Northeast). Now, that might not seem like a bargain, but 20% of a $250,000 home is a $50,000 discount!
The bottom line is, if you own a property now and are looking to move on up, make sure that you can afford to pay a balloon payment if the price of your house dips and your bank demands that you settle the difference. If you are unhappy with your home, consider selling it soon, and living in either a rental, or consider purchasing a tiny home on either leased land or land that you purchase with cash and live mortgage free. Protect yourself from being boxed into a short-sale or foreclosure if you cannot continue to pay a hefty mortgage during a "down" economy. It will destroy your credit, and could prevent you from benefiting when prices dip dramatically (and, they always do!)