Russia and Ukraine: "What goes around, comes around." That country's short-term outlook. Prediction.
Am I the only one thinking that the Ukrainian people and their corrupt oligarchs are "reaping what they've sewn?" After all, they committed genocide on their own people in 2014, especially in the Eastern region known as the Donbas(s), forcing them to live in dark basements and bomb shelters after bombing them out of their own homes. ( Sound familiar?) More below...
So, a quick background. Here's a map of the Ukraine (below). Note that the areas in RED, heavily populated by Russians, declared their indepence from the corrupt, anti-Russian regime in Kiev when the U.S. assisted in a coup (2014) to overthrow the Russia-friendly leader, Yanukovich, and installed the incredibly corrupt president Petro "Porky" Poroshenko.
While Crimeans peacefully voted to return to Russia (and so they did, benefiting greatly with higher pay and pensions), the Donbas region (collectively, Luhansk & Donetsk) voted to remain independent from both the Ukraine and Russia. They backed their position (and borders) with military firepower stolen from the Ukrainian military who mercilessly attacked their civilians, forcing many to live in underground tunnels and basements.
Fast-forward to 2022, and an embolded (and, quite frankly, FED UP) Putin officially "invades" the Ukraine, attacking positions throughout the country in major cities. And, like their brothers and sisters in the Eastern Donbas region, the Ukrainians who sat and laughed at their misfortune, are now themselves forced to flea their homes to safety.
So, what will happen to this country over the next several months and years?
First of all, no matter what you might hear, it appears as if there was an attempt by the Ukrainians to undermine the Russian control of their mission-critical Crimea region, and this is what led to heightened tensions (and now, hot war). Plus, the Russian-friendly East appears to have been riddled with ongoing skirmishes with Kiev at their borders, but they had, up until this point, chosen to fight their own battles rather than allow the Russians to take over. However, there was no stopping Russia once they decided to invade, bullying their way through the Donbas as they made their way towards Kiev.
With this being said, I am happy to say that over the next several months, and even years, the Donbas region will be feeling a huge sense of relief from all of this with Ukraine "off their backs" or so to speak. They will soon experience peace and renewed prosperity thanks to Russia, and should be able to continue good relations with Moscow, while maintaining their sovereignty.
Putin has on his "war hat" at this time, and seems to enjoy a fairly hands-on approach to leading the current attacks in the Ukraine. However, there should soon be a big "warning shot" over his country that could shake some sense into him, and I would expect a "truce" of some sorts very soon (within the next two months at the soonest).
That is not to say that Putin won't find a way to put the squeeze on Kiev over the next two years. He truly is trying to protect his country's borders, and keep his people happy (he has an obligation to do so, and is no dumby). I also think that he has a realsoft spot for the Russians in the independent East, and of course the Russian-Crimeans.
Putin is the big winner in all of this! And, he'll reap the benefits for years to come.
With that being said, I would expect Russian oil and gas to continue to flow through the Ukraine to Europe for at least the next 90 years or so, with almost no opposition from the West. I can also see that over time, the relations between the Ukraine and Russia will improve dramatically, to the point where citizens of each country will happily cross borders between them, enjoying free trade and leisure travel.
As for Biden in the United States, his attempts to "get into bed", or so to speak, with corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs has back-fired, and they can't wait to be rid of him! Likewise, the IMF will be put in their place, too!